Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff is the chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management and the host of The Peter Schiff Show podcast. He's a long-time dollar bear and gold bull.
This post summarizes his talking points.
Home Prices Could Fall Up to 50% as Mortgages Head for 9%, Peter Schiff Warns (October 7, 2026)
The debt chickens are finally coming home to roost in the bond market.
We have the highest bond yields since 2002. We're just at the beginning. Bond yields are going much higher and there will be a sovereign debt crisis.
The government won't be in a position to bail out anyone in the coming crisis.
From 1981 to 2021, there was a massive 40-year bull market in bonds.
We are 6 years into a major bear market in bonds.
We will see ever-increasing rates. They will probably rise faster than they fell.
We could see 9% mortgage rates in Q1 2027.
A 30-50% decline in home prices nationwide is the only way to keep them affordable.
Fixed-rate mortgages and positive equity are the only things keeping people in their houses.
Home appreciation was driving consumer spending. Homeowners were refinancing to pull out equity and lower their payments when rates were falling.
We used to have low debt and low interest rates. Then we had relatively low debt with high interest rates in the 80s. Then the debt exploded post-GFC, but interest rates collapsed. Now we have high debt and high interest rates.
He expects the biggest financial crisis that the US has ever faced.
Trump's popularity is low because people are broke.
He thinks the Republicans will lose the House and Senate.
He thinks the Democrats will make it even worse. Both parties are running up the debt.
There are two ways to resolve our high debt / high interest rate problem:
- massive inflation
- massive default
There will be a lot of defaults in the private sector.
He thinks the risk of the US defaulting is low. It's likely they will restructure. They may change the coupon or maturity.
He knows that the debt won't be repaid with "real money". It's impossible.
Performance of US Treasuries in the last 10 years is the worst in the last 100 years. That doesn't even factor in inflation.
He thinks Fannie and Freddie will go bankrupt again when real estate prices fall.
He recommends money market funds over bond funds.
But even better is gold and silver.
Budget deficits are going to get bigger and bigger because the interest expense on the national debt is growing.
The Social Security COLAs will never reflect the actual cost of living cause they're based on the CPI. This is also a self-perpetuating cycle. As inflation rises, the COLAs will also rise.
Social Security is already broke cause it doesn't collect enough in taxes to pay the benefits. It's been selling down bonds to help make the benefit payments.
Social Security benefits will have to be cut 30% unless they raise payroll taxes.
We will have to start means testing Social Security benefits. People who use Social Security to pay their country club dues won't get the check anymore.
The average Social Security recipient has a lot more wealth than the worker who is paying the tax.
When the yields get really high, then the Fed will just print money to buy the bonds.
The politicians keep kicking the can down the road. Actually solving the problem would mean admitting the issue to the public. Nobody wants to deliver the austerity message to the voters.
The hyperscalers used to buy Treasuries with their extra cash. Now they're in competition with the government to raise money via debt.
Foreign central banks are also selling Treasuries.
All the currencies are weak. The dollar, pound, euro, and yen are all weak. All fiat currencies sink, they just sink at different rates.
He expects the dollar to lose its reserve status.
These rising rates will be bullish for gold. It will be like the 1970s when rates rose and gold rose too.
Currency moves matter a lot in the bond market. A small change in FX can wipe out an entire year of bond interest.
He expects crypto owners and fiat currency owners to eventually want to buy gold. Gold will be the last safe haven standing.
We weaponized the dollar by using it to impose sanctions. This gives other countries the impression that US dollars are not safe. He thinks this was a very bad idea.
He has more money in mining stocks than physical bullion.
A sovereign wealth fund may start buying gold mining companies to start mining their own gold.
He thinks foreign central banks will want more of their gold within their country. He doesn't think they will want to keep it in the US (e.g. the NY Fed).
He expects significant tax hikes on the wealthy next year. Dems will pass them in Congress and he expects Trump to sign them.
There is a possibility that AI is not a bubble. There is a chance that this investment will increase productivity so much that we will get a get-out-of-jail-free card. He doesn't know if this is a big chance or a small chance.
The biggest threat to your retirement is inflation.
The government needs to make massive cuts to spending.
Joe Rogan - Peter Schiff Predicts Another Financial Crisis (August 23, 2017)
Note: This interview was from 10 years ago.
When the cost of living is skyrocketing for a lot of people, it will be a big problem.
He thinks that eventually we will go into another recession and the government will bring interest rates to zero.
The main reason we had a real estate bubble was because Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% for a year and a half.
When the Fed opens up the printing press again, he thinks the dollar will get killed.
He thinks the next crisis will be a big sell cycle for the dollar.
Rising rates will destroy the banks and housing market.
National debt is close to $20 trillion.
There is no way the government can pay this debt if interest rates spike.
Labor force participation is collapsing among young people.